Nagy’s Scouting Model Will Ensure OU Remains Competitive in Revenue Sharing Era of College Football – if Fan Base Gives it Time to Work
Let’s go ahead and address the elephant in the room: Oklahoma’s current recruiting class ranks 21st according to Rivals/On3 and a stunning 41st in 247Sports' latest composite.
Now before you start lighting torches and booking flights to Norman to demand answers from Brent Venables and new general manager Jim Nagy, allow me to offer a perspective that’s been developing among those of us who cover Oklahoma football daily, who talk to the people involved, and who actually understand the strategy behind what’s happening.
This is not a crisis.
It’s a calculated pivot.
It’s also exactly why Kchris Griffin, Chris Mason and I have been urging patience from Sooner Nation for the better part of three months since Nagy was hired to run OU's scouting/player personnel department.
As Mason puts it so accurately, this is "the sausage process" — and like with any good sausage, you don’t want to watch how it’s made.
But if done right, it’ll taste like a championship.
Why the Rankings Don’t Tell the Whole Story
Let’s break it down. Recruiting services like 247Sports, On3/Rivals and ESPN are heavily driven by exposure, camps and visibility. Their entire business model relies on subscriptions and traffic driven by top-rated players attending high-profile events they sponsor.
This isn't a conspiracy — it's capitalism.
That means the prospects who attend those camps, often held in traditional recruiting hotbeds like Georgia, Florida, Texas and California, tend to get the lion's share of attention and stars. But what about the elite athlete in Kansas who doesn't have the money to travel to a 247 mega-camp in Miami? Or the multi-sport phenom in rural Oklahoma who doesn't even know what an On3 profile is?
Those players don’t get rated the same way. Sometimes they don’t get rated at all.
And that’s where Jim Nagy and Brent Venables come in.
Nagy, who spent more than two decades in NFL front offices and made his name turning the Senior Bowl into a legitimate NFL scouting proving ground, isn't evaluating talent based on a star system. He’s doing it the way they do in the pros: with tape, character assessments and a proprietary grading scale.
"We've got a grading scale we're going to stick to," Nagy said this week on Fox Sports' Triple Option Podcast with Rob Stone, Urban Meyer and Mark Ingram. "In the NFL, there's a numbers-based grading scale. There's a color-based scale. That’s what we're going with here — and that's also going to dictate how we spend on players as well."
Translation: If you’re a 3-star on Rivals but you’re graded like a 5-star on OU’s internal board, the Sooners are going to recruit you like a 5-star. And they're going to do it without getting into a bidding war with Texas, Oregon or Ohio State.
OU's NIL Philosophy: Find Value, Not Hype
It’s no secret that Oklahoma isn’t throwing bags of NIL money at every kid with a high rating and an Instagram following. With the newly-implemented $20.5 million revenue share salary cap, programs like OU are going to have to be more judicious than ever with how they spend that money.
Nagy knows this well. "If you don't have a structure in place, you're going to be all over the place with paying players," he said. "And then the next thing you know, you're going to be over the cap."
In other words, OU is taking the long view. They’re not just trying to win the recruiting war in July — they’re trying to win football games in November, and playoff games in January. That means building a roster with depth, with culture fits, with guys who will stay and develop and bleed crimson.
That is the epitome of value.
The History of OU and 5-Stars: A Mixed Bag
Sooner fans love to talk about Adrian Peterson, Tommie Harris, Joe Mixon and Gerald McCoy. All 5-star players. All program-changing talents.
But how often do we talk about Rhett Bomar, Spencer Rattler, Jackson Arnold (so far), Jermie Calhoun, Jadon Haselwood or Trey Metoyer? That’s a long list of 5-star guys who either flamed out, transferred or never quite lived up to expectations in Norman.
OU has won a hell of a lot of football games with guys like Baker Mayfield (walk-on), Trent Williams and Sam Bradford (3-stars) or Creed Humphrey (a 4-star, but not until late in the recruiting cycle).
It's not about the stars. It’s about the fit. And it’s about development.
"The Saban Effect" and the Blueprint
On The HOF College Football Late Shift (56:49) Saturday night, Marcus Dent, Host of The GridIron Insight and father of OU offensive Tackle Isaiah Dent, made a critical point.
"They used to call it the Saban Effect," Dent said on the show — where players got a rankings boost simply because Nick Saban offered them. “They could be a Zero-Star, but once they got that offer, they went straight to the top.”
But it didn’t happen overnight.
Saban recruited the guys he believed in. He developed them. He won championships. THEN, recruiting sites started REACTING to Alabama’s offers, not the other way around.
That’s what Jim Nagy and Brent Venables are trying to create in Norman. But, it won’t happen immediately, either.
The moment OU wins with this model — when that 3-star linebacker from Nebraska becomes a Butkus finalist, or that overlooked QB from a low-rated Dallas-Metroplex program like Little Elm transfers in and wins an SEC championship — 247 Sports and Rivals/On3 will start adjusting THEIR grades to match OU’s.
We saw it with Clemson, too. In 2016, Swinney and Venables won a national title with a Blue-Chip Ratio under 60%. That means less than 60% of the roster was made up of 4- and 5-star players. You know what they had instead? A team full of guys that fit their culture, worked their butts off and were coached into greatness.
OU is trying to be that outlier again.
The Risks Are Real
Of course, this isn’t without risk. The Sooner fanbase – as well all know – is impatient. Social media makes every recruiting win or loss feel existential. And Brent Venables isn’t exactly sitting on an unlimited honeymoon phase anymore.
If Oklahoma struggles this fall, if the offense sputters or the defense can’t get stops, you can bet recruiting rankings will be the first club critics use to beat this staff over the head with. That’s the nature of the beast.
But if Nagy and Venables are right, and if this class turns out to be full of diamonds mined from under-the-radar programs in flyover states, then Venables will be hailed as a visionary. And Nagy will have changed the recruiting game.
Sooner Nation, Here's the Ask
You want stars? Go stare at the composite rankings and panic.
You want wins? Trust the process.
No one’s asking you to be content with mediocrity. No one’s waving the white flag to Texas or conceding to the SEC programs that stack the most 5-stars.
What we are asking is that you understand this model, appreciate the why, and recognize that Oklahoma isn’t trying to copy the Bamas and Georgias of the world. They’re trying to beat them.
Not with hype, but with substance.
And if we know anything about this program’s history, it’s that when OU zigged while everyone else zagged, greatness usually followed.
So grab a seat, crack a cold one and stop worrying about July rankings.
The only stars that matter are the ones that led to championship trophies — and there’s room in the Switzer Center for more.
Jason Watkins is the Founder and Publisher of HOF Media, and host of "Rise & Shine College Football" and "The HOF College Football Late Shift." He is a longtime college football writer/analyst and content creator across YouTube and social media.
The SEC transition has been harsher on Brent Venables and the Oklahoma Sooners than anticipated, with a tough 1-4 start sparking fan concerns over Venables’ leadership.
Despite glimpses of offensive progress in their latest 26-14 loss at Ole Miss, Oklahoma’s 4-4 record has fueled doubts about Venables’ ability to steer the program through the SEC’s relentless competition. While injuries to key offensive players have created challenges, Venables’ hesitance to address coaching issues and poor communication within the offensive staff have only deepened the Sooners' struggles.
The failure of the offensive staff to communicate effectively and Venables’ hesitance to manage his coaching staff proactively have compounded the difficulties presented by mounting injuries.
Hesitancy on Display: The 4th-Down Decision
Venables' hesitation was encapsulated on Saturday, just six days after finally relieving Littrell of his duties as offensive coordinator: the 4th-and-4 timeout against Ole Miss late in the third quarter. Trailing by two scores, Oklahoma needed a jolt to stay in the game.
The situation was critical, but hardly complex. Coaches make these calls instinctively, often without a second thought. Instead, Venables used a timeout — only to ultimately bring out the punt team, a decision that deflated the offense and left fans scratching their heads.
If the choice was to punt, Venables could’ve delayed the game for a mere five yards instead of burning a precious timeout. If he intended to go for it, why not get his new play caller’s best play for the situation and make the call confidently?
Even if the Sooners fail to pick up the four yards, it would have signaled a willingness to take a chance — or give one — to an offense that has been less-than-inspiring all season.
In that one instance, Venables’ hesitation was as costly as a missed play. With the momentum squarely in favor of Lane Kiffin’s Rebels, burning that timeout only to punt sent the wrong signal to a young group on offense that is in serious need of someone who believes in them. Instead, he proved he didn’t trust them to get a measly four yards and extend a drive to get back into the game.
OU’s Identity Crisis on Offense
What we’re witnessing with OU’s offense is not merely a slump — it’s an identity crisis. Oklahoma fans are accustomed to high-powered, fast-paced offenses that can score almost at will. Littrell’s offense was anything but explosive for seven weeks, and Joe Jon Finley had a lackluster, scoreless latter half of Week 8, too.
To say the Sooners struggled to establish consistency would be an overwhelming understatement.
OU has struggled with untimely penalties and turnovers and suffered through a complete lack of innovation and creativity. The plays feel uninspired, lack direction and are devoid of explosive results.
As a unit, this offense is drawing comparisons to the infamous John Blake era, and has the numbers to back the comparison up. ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️
There’s no other way to say it but bluntly … OU has no clear identity with its offense on the field.
The offensive woes go beyond play-calling; they’re structural. Reports from inside the Switzer Center suggest that there have been significant communication breakdowns within the offensive staff. Coaches have reportedly been on different pages regarding even the most fundamental elements, like blocking schemes. If those rumors are reaching the public, it’s safe to say Venables has known about these issues for some time.
A head coach — even a defensive-minded one like Venables — cannot allow such dysfunction to persist. These aren’t minor misunderstandings; they’re symptoms of a team struggling to find cohesion. Venables needed to address these issues early, before they became embedded in the team’s culture, but his delay in doing so has turned what might have been small fires into an inferno.
Mailed-In Hire: The Problem with Littrell
When Venables hired Seth Littrell, it felt like a placeholder decision. It wasn’t the bold, visionary hire that programs like Oklahoma should be making. Littrell’s track record showed some promise, but he had yet to prove himself as the kind of offensive mind that could elevate a program to championship contention.
Looking back on the decision to elevate Littrell and Finley, the hire seems more like an afterthought, a half-measure rather than a commitment to offensive excellence.
The results have been glaringly obvious. The offense lacks explosive creativity that OU fans are used to seeing, and that lack of energy has translated into downright unacceptable performances on the field, as evidenced by the Sooners’ historically bad statistical rankings in FBS football.
In just ten months on the job, Littrell and his offensive staff failed to the tune of numbers nobody in their right minds would have predicted following the Sooners’ 2023 season that saw the offense rank in the Top 5 in both Total Offense and Scoring Offense, and alone at the top of the Big 12 Conference in Points, Yards and Yards Per Play.
This despite having two of the most electric quarterbacks from their respective recruiting classes in the fold:
2023 5-star and Elite 11-winning Jackson Arnold of Denton Guyer, the 2023 Gatorade National HS Player of the Year and twice a Class 6A State Finalist in Texas.
And former Allen and Frisco Emerson (Texas) superstar Michael Hawkins, Jr., a Sooner legacy trained by Kyler's father Kevin Murray, and who, as a senior, accounted for 55 touchdowns and just three turnovers, leading Emerson to within a game of playing for a Texas State Championship in Class 5A.
Neither were able to sustain success under Littrell's tutelage, and rumors have swirled this week about none of OU's QBs feeling as though been properly developed by the now-fired Littrell as the QBs coach.
Both started a games after being inserted for the other following ineffective play, and both came into their first appearances under Littrell with confidence and swagger that appeared missing by the time they were pulled from games after committing three turnovers and allowing the Sooners to fall behind teams they likely could have beaten were it not for the turnovers they committed.
In other words, Seth Littrell had to go.
Saturday’s loss leaves Oklahoma at 4-4, staring down a potential losing season -- the second for Venables since he arrived after the abrupt departure of Lincoln Riley to USC.
These are unacceptable at Oklahoma, a school with one of the richest football traditions in the country. What makes it even more alarming is that no longer can OU fans blame the losses on a ineffectice, suoddr defense — OU seems to have mostly turned the corner on that side of the ball — but to say the fan base is frustrated, would again be a massive understatement.
Oklahoma fans don’t want excuses; they want results. And for a head coach like Venables, the time for excuses is running out.
The Next OC Hire: BV’s Defining Moment
After Finally punting the Littrell experiment — once again needing more time than most believe he should have — Venables again finds himself in the market for a new offensive coordinator — for the third time in three seasons.
This time, though, the choice Venables makes will ultimately define his second tenure in Norman, possibly his entire future as a head coach in college football. Mailing it in would be tantamount to a dereliction of duty in the eyes of Sooner Nation.
Venables MUST get this one right. He has to bring in someone with a proven track record of offensive success, someone who can bring energy, innovation, and a clear identity to the offense. Anything less than a home-run hire will only deepen the cracks in Venables’ foundation as head coach.
If Venables fails to find the right offensive coordinator, his job security will slip through those cracks, and his tenure as the Head Ball Coach of the Sooners will die in a whimper. Even if he builds a defense that resembles the ’85 Bears, it won’t matter if OU’s offense can’t score points.
The OU fan base is patient to a degree, but they expect excellence. For Venables, this is a make-or-break moment.
Either he finds the right offensive coordinator and proves he can lead a balanced, championship-caliber team, or he risks being shown the door in a year or less.
The Venables Paradox: Championship Defense, JV Offense
The irony of Venables’ situation is that, in many ways, Oklahoma has become Lincoln Riley’s reverse image. Under Riley, the Sooners fielded prolific offenses but were plagued by a porous defense that could never quite get them over the championship hump.
With Venables, it’s the opposite: the defense has shown promise, but the offense is currently in full-on spiral.
The head coach role, especially at Blue Blood OU, requires more than defensive expertise or recruiting prowess. It demands a complete vision, a well-rounded team, and an unwavering commitment to excellence on both sides of the ball.
For Venables to truly establish himself as a championship-level head coach, he has to be willing to delegate offense to someone who can make people forget he’s a defensive guru and simply call him “Coach.” To reach the heights that Oklahoma fans demand, Venables needs to be remembered not as a defensive mind but as a leader who fields a complete team. That requires taking risks, making tough decisions, and, most importantly, holding his staff to the highest possible standard.
It requires a decisive, confident vision for a championship future. The clock is ticking on Brent Venables’ tenure in Oklahoma, and his window for turning things around is narrowing.
Being the head coach at Oklahoma is an honor, but it’s also a responsibility. Venables needs to rise to that responsibility, or he and Lincoln Riley might both be in the job market this time next year.
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Jason Watkins is the Publisher at HOF Media Group and the Host of the HOF College Football Podcast. Reach him at jw@hofmedia.us