Texas More Likely to Miss College Football Playoff Than Win it All
Texas is More Likely to Miss College Football Playoff than win it all.
I have no problem—begrudgingly—giving Steve Sarkisian and his Texas Longhorns partial credit for their recent success, having reached the College Football Playoff semifinals two years running, once in the four-team version and once in the expanded 12-team format.
I've beaten the dead horse about the Horns' kiddie schedule—especially compared to Oklahoma's brutal initiation into the SEC—but even I must acknowledge Texas won the games necessary to secure a Big 12 Championship in 2023 and compete for an SEC title in their inaugural run through that league last year.
Regardless of how charmed their path was—I'll forever argue it was the most favorable possible—the Longhorns still found ways to win games they would've historically coughed up. For that, begrudgingly again, Texas deserves praise.
But that's as far as it goes.
Arch Manning: Savior or Overhyped?
What we're absolutely NOT going to do is hop aboard the Texas hype train heading into 2025, no matter how much Arch Manning propaganda ESPN and national pundits shove down our throats. Call it Crimson bias—I'll gladly wear it—but be honest: the idea of Texas winning the national championship next January is a long shot at best, and missing the playoffs entirely might be closer to reality.
Steve Sarkisian hasn't shaken his habit of folding against equally talented teams, and even more worrisome, his teams still play down to inferior opponents far too often. Yes, Manning might be talented—maybe even Heisman-worthy—but let's pump the brakes on handing him trophies he hasn't yet earned.
Question Marks on Offense
Even On3’s "Inside Texas" insider Evan Vieth—while certainly optimistic about Manning—acknowledges Texas' offense as the weakest among his top five national title contenders, highlighting significant holes along an offensive line replacing four of five starters.
Vieth's data-driven skepticism should alarm Longhorn faithful: Texas ranks dead-last among the contenders he identified (Ohio State, Georgia, Penn State, Oregon and the Horns) in offensive continuity, with half of its projected starters unproven or barely tested.
Yet, inexplicably, Vieth still sips that burnt-orange Kool-Aid, suggesting Manning could single-handedly elevate Texas and believes the Golden Arch is far more likely to clutch the most famous bronze statue in sports come mid-December than any of the other contenders’ quarterbacks.
Really? More likely than Penn State's Drew Allar, LSU's Garrett Nussmeier, Clemson's Cade Klubnik, or even Oklahoma’s John Mateer, who already amassed 44 touchdowns and 4,000-plus yards last season?
Wouldn’t a playoff run by any of those teams likely land their trigger man in New York for the Heisman ceremony, while falling short of the CFP would all but doom Manning’s Heisman hopes?
You started off on a sensible path, Evan, but similar to Sark, you fell short of the finishing power necessary to make me believe you see anyone other than Texas hoisting championship gold next January.
Receiver Production—Where's the Star?
Still, Evan was correct in pointing out the question marks accompanying Texas’ receiving corps. Ryan Wingo, hailed as the next superstar, managed just two touchdowns and a single 100-yard game as a freshman. Compare that to Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith (1,315 yards, 15 TDs) or Alabama’s Ryan Williams (865 yards, 8 TDs), and Wingo's production looks pedestrian at best.
Deandre Moore? Two seasons at Texas, still not a featured player. Talented freshmen Kaliq Lockett and Jaime Ffrench arrive with promise—but neither has proven a thing yet, especially as Manning adjusts to the spotlight.
Defensive Departures Spell Trouble
Then we get to the defense—the real reason for Texas' success in 2024—and the outlook gets worse. ESPN’s Bill Connelly ranks Texas just 44th nationally in returning defensive production (103rd overall). Losing Vernon Broughton and Alfred Collins up front hurts significantly. Even more devastating are the departures in the secondary: Thorpe Award winner Jahdae Barron and veteran safety Andrew Mukuba, who combined for half of the team's interceptions and were top-three tacklers. Good luck replacing that overnight.
Conclusion: Playoff Dreams, Meet Reality
Stack it all together: an unproven offensive line, inflated expectations for Manning, uncertainty at receiver, and a depleted defense missing key playmakers.
Factor in Sarkisian's perpetual underachievement against elite competition, and it becomes abundantly clear: Texas is more likely to miss the College Football Playoff than it is to win the national championship in 2025.
By all means, I’d love to hear an argument that makes some sense out of the perpetual hype accompanying Sark, Arch and Texas into 2025, but I struggle to believe anyone can articulate one that isn’t steeped in burnt-orange-colored platitudes like “Sark is rolling, that’s why.”
Send (actual) arguments for Texas being a real 2025 title contender to the email below.
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Jason Watkins is the Founder and Publisher of HOF Media Group. Write to him at jw@hofmedia.us
The SEC transition has been harsher on Brent Venables and the Oklahoma Sooners than anticipated, with a tough 1-4 start sparking fan concerns over Venables’ leadership.
Despite glimpses of offensive progress in their latest 26-14 loss at Ole Miss, Oklahoma’s 4-4 record has fueled doubts about Venables’ ability to steer the program through the SEC’s relentless competition. While injuries to key offensive players have created challenges, Venables’ hesitance to address coaching issues and poor communication within the offensive staff have only deepened the Sooners' struggles.
The failure of the offensive staff to communicate effectively and Venables’ hesitance to manage his coaching staff proactively have compounded the difficulties presented by mounting injuries.
Hesitancy on Display: The 4th-Down Decision
Venables' hesitation was encapsulated on Saturday, just six days after finally relieving Littrell of his duties as offensive coordinator: the 4th-and-4 timeout against Ole Miss late in the third quarter. Trailing by two scores, Oklahoma needed a jolt to stay in the game.
The situation was critical, but hardly complex. Coaches make these calls instinctively, often without a second thought. Instead, Venables used a timeout — only to ultimately bring out the punt team, a decision that deflated the offense and left fans scratching their heads.
If the choice was to punt, Venables could’ve delayed the game for a mere five yards instead of burning a precious timeout. If he intended to go for it, why not get his new play caller’s best play for the situation and make the call confidently?
Even if the Sooners fail to pick up the four yards, it would have signaled a willingness to take a chance — or give one — to an offense that has been less-than-inspiring all season.
In that one instance, Venables’ hesitation was as costly as a missed play. With the momentum squarely in favor of Lane Kiffin’s Rebels, burning that timeout only to punt sent the wrong signal to a young group on offense that is in serious need of someone who believes in them. Instead, he proved he didn’t trust them to get a measly four yards and extend a drive to get back into the game.
OU’s Identity Crisis on Offense
What we’re witnessing with OU’s offense is not merely a slump — it’s an identity crisis. Oklahoma fans are accustomed to high-powered, fast-paced offenses that can score almost at will. Littrell’s offense was anything but explosive for seven weeks, and Joe Jon Finley had a lackluster, scoreless latter half of Week 8, too.
To say the Sooners struggled to establish consistency would be an overwhelming understatement.
OU has struggled with untimely penalties and turnovers and suffered through a complete lack of innovation and creativity. The plays feel uninspired, lack direction and are devoid of explosive results.
As a unit, this offense is drawing comparisons to the infamous John Blake era, and has the numbers to back the comparison up. ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️ ⬇️
There’s no other way to say it but bluntly … OU has no clear identity with its offense on the field.
The offensive woes go beyond play-calling; they’re structural. Reports from inside the Switzer Center suggest that there have been significant communication breakdowns within the offensive staff. Coaches have reportedly been on different pages regarding even the most fundamental elements, like blocking schemes. If those rumors are reaching the public, it’s safe to say Venables has known about these issues for some time.
A head coach — even a defensive-minded one like Venables — cannot allow such dysfunction to persist. These aren’t minor misunderstandings; they’re symptoms of a team struggling to find cohesion. Venables needed to address these issues early, before they became embedded in the team’s culture, but his delay in doing so has turned what might have been small fires into an inferno.
Mailed-In Hire: The Problem with Littrell
When Venables hired Seth Littrell, it felt like a placeholder decision. It wasn’t the bold, visionary hire that programs like Oklahoma should be making. Littrell’s track record showed some promise, but he had yet to prove himself as the kind of offensive mind that could elevate a program to championship contention.
Looking back on the decision to elevate Littrell and Finley, the hire seems more like an afterthought, a half-measure rather than a commitment to offensive excellence.
The results have been glaringly obvious. The offense lacks explosive creativity that OU fans are used to seeing, and that lack of energy has translated into downright unacceptable performances on the field, as evidenced by the Sooners’ historically bad statistical rankings in FBS football.
In just ten months on the job, Littrell and his offensive staff failed to the tune of numbers nobody in their right minds would have predicted following the Sooners’ 2023 season that saw the offense rank in the Top 5 in both Total Offense and Scoring Offense, and alone at the top of the Big 12 Conference in Points, Yards and Yards Per Play.
This despite having two of the most electric quarterbacks from their respective recruiting classes in the fold:
2023 5-star and Elite 11-winning Jackson Arnold of Denton Guyer, the 2023 Gatorade National HS Player of the Year and twice a Class 6A State Finalist in Texas.
And former Allen and Frisco Emerson (Texas) superstar Michael Hawkins, Jr., a Sooner legacy trained by Kyler's father Kevin Murray, and who, as a senior, accounted for 55 touchdowns and just three turnovers, leading Emerson to within a game of playing for a Texas State Championship in Class 5A.
Neither were able to sustain success under Littrell's tutelage, and rumors have swirled this week about none of OU's QBs feeling as though been properly developed by the now-fired Littrell as the QBs coach.
Both started a games after being inserted for the other following ineffective play, and both came into their first appearances under Littrell with confidence and swagger that appeared missing by the time they were pulled from games after committing three turnovers and allowing the Sooners to fall behind teams they likely could have beaten were it not for the turnovers they committed.
In other words, Seth Littrell had to go.
Saturday’s loss leaves Oklahoma at 4-4, staring down a potential losing season -- the second for Venables since he arrived after the abrupt departure of Lincoln Riley to USC.
These are unacceptable at Oklahoma, a school with one of the richest football traditions in the country. What makes it even more alarming is that no longer can OU fans blame the losses on a ineffectice, suoddr defense — OU seems to have mostly turned the corner on that side of the ball — but to say the fan base is frustrated, would again be a massive understatement.
Oklahoma fans don’t want excuses; they want results. And for a head coach like Venables, the time for excuses is running out.
The Next OC Hire: BV’s Defining Moment
After Finally punting the Littrell experiment — once again needing more time than most believe he should have — Venables again finds himself in the market for a new offensive coordinator — for the third time in three seasons.
This time, though, the choice Venables makes will ultimately define his second tenure in Norman, possibly his entire future as a head coach in college football. Mailing it in would be tantamount to a dereliction of duty in the eyes of Sooner Nation.
Venables MUST get this one right. He has to bring in someone with a proven track record of offensive success, someone who can bring energy, innovation, and a clear identity to the offense. Anything less than a home-run hire will only deepen the cracks in Venables’ foundation as head coach.
If Venables fails to find the right offensive coordinator, his job security will slip through those cracks, and his tenure as the Head Ball Coach of the Sooners will die in a whimper. Even if he builds a defense that resembles the ’85 Bears, it won’t matter if OU’s offense can’t score points.
The OU fan base is patient to a degree, but they expect excellence. For Venables, this is a make-or-break moment.
Either he finds the right offensive coordinator and proves he can lead a balanced, championship-caliber team, or he risks being shown the door in a year or less.
The Venables Paradox: Championship Defense, JV Offense
The irony of Venables’ situation is that, in many ways, Oklahoma has become Lincoln Riley’s reverse image. Under Riley, the Sooners fielded prolific offenses but were plagued by a porous defense that could never quite get them over the championship hump.
With Venables, it’s the opposite: the defense has shown promise, but the offense is currently in full-on spiral.
The head coach role, especially at Blue Blood OU, requires more than defensive expertise or recruiting prowess. It demands a complete vision, a well-rounded team, and an unwavering commitment to excellence on both sides of the ball.
For Venables to truly establish himself as a championship-level head coach, he has to be willing to delegate offense to someone who can make people forget he’s a defensive guru and simply call him “Coach.” To reach the heights that Oklahoma fans demand, Venables needs to be remembered not as a defensive mind but as a leader who fields a complete team. That requires taking risks, making tough decisions, and, most importantly, holding his staff to the highest possible standard.
It requires a decisive, confident vision for a championship future. The clock is ticking on Brent Venables’ tenure in Oklahoma, and his window for turning things around is narrowing.
Being the head coach at Oklahoma is an honor, but it’s also a responsibility. Venables needs to rise to that responsibility, or he and Lincoln Riley might both be in the job market this time next year.
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Jason Watkins is the Publisher at HOF Media Group and the Host of the HOF College Football Podcast. Reach him at jw@hofmedia.us